Proponents of efforts to bring back Governor Gavin Newsom have spent months barking at least one wrong tree, according to the latest crime statistics and a new investigation by the Federal Ministry of Justice.
From early spring, Republican candidates to replace Newsom blew him up by creating what they often called a wave of crime.
But mid-year figures from some of California’s most populous regions show that there really isn’t a new wave of crime across the state. Yes, some types of crime are occurring in some areas. In Los Angeles, there were 179 murders in the middle of the year, the highest in the last decade. Some lawyers have accused the slowdown of anti-gang prosecution caused by local district attorney George Gascon. .. However, the overall crime was relatively stable.
In San Diego, violent crimes fell by 1.7% in the middle of the year compared to last year. Overall crime was reduced by 8% and San Diego was ranked as the safest of the 10 largest cities in the United States.
In San Francisco, gun-related crime was 119 in the middle of the year, about twice the number in mid-2019 before the coronavirus pandemic stopped. Car intrusions have decreased in the Bay Area, but shoplifting has increased.
This is clearly a state-wide complex situation, with regional reasons rather than state-wide reasons generally behind crime statistics in different regions.
But recidivism is a completely different matter, so the wave of crime may still be coming. Under a policy strongly pushed by the former government. State prison rolls accelerated by Jerry Brown and Newsom have been reduced by more than 30,000 since the early 2000s. Approximately three-quarters of these former prisoners will be arrested for other reasons within five years of their release, according to a new 34-state survey by the Federal Department of Justice and Statistics.
Ironically, the study was published in a legal news service the same day state officials announced the imminent release of 21 arsonists from Madera County, who were sentenced to seven to thirty years in prison. rice field. Kenneth Jackson broke out in 2013 at Yosemite Lakes Park near the town of Coacey Gold between the south entrance of Yosemite National Park and Fresno.
Jackson’s sentence was commuted in 2018, but Madera County officials blocked two early paroles. District attorney Sally Moreno now wants to prevent him from being released on parole in the county and be sent elsewhere. In a video statement, she condemned the state’s process of deciding which prisoners to release to further reduce prison population, in part to reduce the risk of COVID-19.
Studies of federal recidivism show that recidivists like Jackson try to cause more wildfires, whatever their psychological motivation.
So far, Newsom and his adversaries haven’t said anything about the implications of federal research in California or the release of Jackson.
If Newsom’s challenger wanted a solid reason to attack him, the Justice Department gave them it. But recidivism is not as sexy as the wave of crime. It is possible to launch one of them almost anytime. The long-standing truth among reporters is that whenever a news agency wants to create a “crime wave,” it only needs to copy a daily police blotter. The same applies to political candidates who have tried it all year round.
However, the high likelihood of recidivism among released criminals should give Newsom and other state officials a pause. That’s because it seems unlikely that it will decrease soon. So even if he survives the recall, the problem awaits Newsom’s rivals next year.
Some may argue that federal studies are racist because of the minority dominance in the prison system. However, it concluded that the rates of re-rest by ethnic groups were very similar. Of the 408,000 released prisoners involved, 35% of whites were re-arrested within the first year, compared to 37% of Latino Americans and 38% of blacks.
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