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Will More Police Curb Crime? Evidence is Slim - Crime Report

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Despite only modest evidence that hiring more police yields less crime, states are pushing for more police funding and experts warn that any declines in crime must be weighed against police violence, erosion of public trust, and a lack of consideration for more social-service oriented solutions, reports the New York Times. History shows that homicides fell after more officers were hired 54 percent of the time, according to Aaron Chalfin, a criminologist at the University of Pennsylvania, with one additional officer reducing between .06 and 0.1 homicides per year, necessitating 10 to 17 new officers to save a life.

Overall, more Black lives were saved than white lives when police officers were added, but in Southern cities with larger Black populations the homicide rate did not budge. More officers made arrests for low-level offenses like alcohol-related infractions, which are not typically seen as contributing to public safety. Because the causes of crime vary from place to place, it can be extraordinarily difficult to disentangle the benefits of hiring more officers in any one city. While a recent survey of criminal justice experts showed that about two-thirds agreed that increasing police budgets would improve public safety, 85 percent said that increasing spending on housing, health and education would do so. In New York City, a randomized trial of street lighting reduced outdoor, nighttime index crimes by 36 percent. In the longer term, Medicaid expansion, access to drug treatment and mental health care, and even a guaranteed basic income have also been found to reduce crime.

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Will More Police Curb Crime? Evidence is Slim - Crime Report
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