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DRIVING THE DAY
Not 24 hours after Sen. JOE MANCHIN pulled the plug on President JOE BIDEN’s Build Back Better Act, Democratic leaders are scrambling to revive it. White House officials are reimagining a scaled-back version of their social spending package that they hope could win Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) approval. And rank-and-file Democrats are ratcheting up pressure on the West Virginian to recant and get back to the negotiating table.
Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER vows in a “Dear Colleague” letter that name-checks Manchin this morning that he will bring a version of BBB to the floor for a vote in January “so that every Member of this body has the opportunity to make their position known on the Senate floor, not just on television” — and hold votes over and over until it passes. Read it here … Senate Dems will hold a virtual conference Tuesday night to try to hash this out.
But is a BBB revival really possible? Or are Democrats in denial?
THE CASE FOR WHY IT’S REALLY DEAD: It boils down to this: Manchin doesn’t give a lick if the Democratic Party doesn’t like him. Biden lost West Virginia by nearly 40 points, and his constituents aren’t inclined to support anything with the president’s name attached to it. In that sense, being assailed by the left only helps Manchin politically.
What’s more, after calling Manchin a liar (in so many words), the White House has put itself in an awfully tough spot to restart negotiations with him. Even if Manchin did provide Biden with assurances he could get on board with BBB in some form, he’s been on record for a long time about his concerns with spending nearly $2 trillion when the nation is $30 trillion in debt and inflation is at a 40-year high. Those are fundamental ideological divides that are hard to bridge.
We also shouldn’t forget about the progressives here. They gave up a host of their top priorities to endorse the current BBB framework — and trusted in Biden to deliver Manchin in return. Now they’re finding that trust was misplaced. Even if Manchin comes back to the table, is there any goodwill left to hash out a new deal? (For one early clue, watch Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.), who is set to appear on “Morning Joe” this morning.)
THE CASE FOR A REVIVAL — Some Democrats think Manchin’s Sunday bombshell was a play for leverage. We’re not sure why he’d need more leverage when he already holds all the cards, but let’s play this out.
Democrats will note that Manchin as recently as a few days ago appeared to be willing to swallow a $1.75 trillion package. It was some of the provisions in the legislation and the way his colleagues scored the overall bill that repelled him. He dismissed plans to “sunset” programs after a few years — as a way to save money on paper and pack more into BBB — as budget gimmickry, hiding BBB’s true price tag.
In theory, Democrats could alleviate that concern by ditching this entire set-up and focusing instead on funding a few programs for a full decade. That wouldn’t be entirely unheard of. As recently as a few months ago, House Democrats, including Speaker NANCY PELOSI, were advocating for fewer programs extended for longer time periods — a position New Democrat Coalition leader SUZAN DELBENE (D-Wash.) reiterated in a statement Sunday night, which our Nicholas Wu noted that White House chief of staff RON KLAIN retweeted.
BUT CAN YOU REALLY CALL SUCH A BILL BBB? The framework was supposed to address family services, housing, climate, health care, education and taxes. Under Manchin’s parameters, Democrats’ options would be severely limited. Take the enhanced child tax credit: While the BBB’s current one-year extension costs $185 billion, a decade-long CTC extension rings in at $1.6 trillion, according to the CBO — essentially eating up the entire package. Same idea for child care and universal pre-K, which came to $381 billion under the original BBB’s sunset provisions, but soars to $752 billion over 10 years.
On Sunday, Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) appeared to float a BBB focused on the CTC, ACA subsidies, prescription drug reform and climate change incentives — the latter of which totals about a half-trillion dollars on its own. But under Manchin’s demands, all those provisions would be way over his budget.
WHAT THE WEST WING IS THINKING: A senior White House official told us they remained optimistic, even after one of the worst days of Biden’s presidency: “We'll get it done. There's always a way. Great to see Dems rally around POTUS today. We’ll figure out a path to unlock it.”
We asked the same official whether it was a mistake to go negative on Manchin on Sunday. Their response: “At every step this year it's been a mix of persuasion and tough love. Look at the rescue plan. Recall the famous anecdote of the tough Biden-Manchin call, during the 11-hour walk off? This may be just the same.” (One big difference: That disagreement was over a narrow issue involving unemployment benefits and no one ever really thought Manchin would be a no for long.)
A FEW OTHER TAKEAWAYS:
1) Democrats over-promised — and they could pay politically. As our colleagues Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett noted Sunday night, this year would seem like an extraordinary success in an alternative universe: Democrats passed a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill as well as a nearly $2 trillion pandemic relief package.
But Democrats oversold their ability to deliver on just about everything else. And now they’ve got to explain to voters why they failed to uphold major campaign promises.
This has the potential to depress Democratic voter turnout ahead of an election year that many predict will cost the party its majorities in the House and Senate. It also comes as Biden’s poll numbers are sagging, inflation is soaring and the pandemic is worsening with Omicron.
2) House front-liners are in trouble. For months, moderate House Democrats have pressed leadership not to hang them out to dry on a BBB bill that would never pass the Senate. They feared a repeat of 1994 and 2010, when conservative Democrats went to bat for the party on controversial cap-and-trade bills that never cleared the Senate — then paid for it on the campaign trail.
Now they’re looking at the same possible predicament, with Republicans already spending millions attacking them for their votes — and nothing tangible to sell as counter-messaging.
That’s why you see everyone from Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.) to Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) calling for Manchin to come back to the table (albeit without naming their moderate ally).
3) A blow to Democratic Party governance. After this year, Democrats are unlikely to control the White House and all of Congress for a long time. That means it could be years before the party gets another crack at tackling climate change. It also means the $3,600-a-year CTC they boasted about all year could actually disappear on their own watch, an embarrassing development. And remember: Time is not on their side, particularly as the Hill pivots to campaign season, when passing anything becomes much harder.
We have a roundup of key reads on the Manchin-Biden fallout below …
Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.
BIDEN’S MONDAY:
— 8:20 a.m.: The president will depart Wilmington, Del., to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 9:15 a.m.
— 10:10 a.m.: Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief.
— 12:45 p.m.: Biden will have lunch with VP KAMALA HARRIS.
— 1:30 p.m.: Biden will meet with the White House Covid-19 response team.
Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1 p.m.
THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out.
BIDEN’S WEEK AHEAD:
— Tuesday: The president will deliver remarks on the pandemic and the rise of the Omicron variant.
— Wednesday: Biden will meet with the Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force and private-sector CEOs to discuss the supply chain and deliver remarks afterward.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
PLAYBOOK READS
MANCHIN-BIDEN FALLOUT
The tick-tocks:
— “From charm offensive to scorched earth: How Biden’s fragile alliance with Manchin unraveled,” by WaPo’s Sean Sullivan and Seung Min Kim. (One deet from the piece: Biden himself approved the rocket that Psaki fired off at Manchin after his “Fox News Sunday” interview.)
— “How months of talks between Biden and Manchin over Build Back Better broke down,” by CNN’s Kevin Liptak, Phil Mattingly and Kaitlan Collins
The policy implications:
— America’s climate agenda is imperilled without BBB, NYT’s Lisa Friedman and Coral Davenport write. “While the administration can use executive action and regulations, without legislation, experts say it will be virtually impossible to achieve President Biden’s goal of aggressively cutting the pollution generated by the United States, the country that has historically pumped the most planet-warming gasses into the atmosphere. That would have dire stakes for the planet, environmentalists said.”
— Related reading: “How 14 policies could survive — or die — after Manchin’s ‘no,’” by Jennifer Scholtes, Ximena Bustillo and Matthew Choi
— Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its 2022 forecast for economic growth in the U.S. on the heels of Manchin’s decision, Bloomberg’s Michael Heath reports.
NYT’s Jim Tankersley writes that the prospects for reviving BBB come down to one issue: “The Path Ahead for Biden: Overcome Manchin’s Inflation Fears”
The view from the right, courtesy of the WSJ editorial page: “Joe Manchin Rescues the Democrats … His opposition to Build Back Better gives Biden a chance to change course.”
ALL POLITICS
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The DNC raised $9.1 million in November and ended last month with $67.4 million in cash on hand. That’s close to the $67.9 million the RNC, which hasn’t disclosed its November numbers, had in the bank as of Oct. 31. Reports are due to the FEC by midnight.
ANOTHER ONE — Rep. ALBIO SIRES (D-N.J.) won’t run for reelection, the latest in a string of senior Democrats to head for the exits, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein. Sires has served in the House since 2006. Among the top candidates to succeed him in the strongly Democratic district is ROBERT J. MENENDEZ, son of the senator, who’s a lawyer and Port Authority commissioner.
CONGRESS
MORE ON SCHUMER’S NEW ‘DEAR COLLEAGUE’ — Schumer, it appears, is ready to squeeze more than just Manchin on BBB. His letter also outlines a plan to bring voting rights legislation to the floor the first week of January as well as another full debate on possible Senate rules change debate if it doesn’t pass. Schumer’s letter mostly blasts Republicans on this issue — but make no mistake: The people he’s going to be pressuring most are wearing blue shirts. (Read: Manchinema on the filibuster.)
“I believe our constituents deserve to know which Senators choose to hide behind ill-conceived and abused rules and which Senators prefer to restore Senate floor procedures to better align with the Founders’ intentions,” he wrote. “As with the BBB, Members will be given the chance to debate on the Senate floor and cast a vote so that their choice on this matter is clear and available for everyone to see.”
THE LATEST GOP BLOCKADE — The posturing over Supreme Court Justice STEPHEN BREYER is heating up ahead of the midterms. “Five Republican senators raised the stakes around Justice Stephen Breyer’s retirement, telling CNN they’d oppose any likely nominee out of this White House,” CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere and Manu Raju report. “Breyer has told several people who’ve made unofficial efforts to push him to retire that he thinks the confirmation process shouldn’t be political, according to people told of those discussions, and Democrats worry he’d remain as an act of resistance to show he’s not bowing to politics.
“Still, top Democrats across Washington would like Breyer to announce he’s going even before the end of the court term in June, so they can get moving on confirmation hearings well before the midterms. More than the political calendar is on their minds -- with their 50-50 margin and several aging Senate Democrats coming from states with Republican governors, they head into the new year fearing that their control of the chamber could collapse at any moment. Privately, multiple Senate Democrats complain that Breyer seems to have let his ego overtake him and he is not being realistic to how radically Supreme Court confirmation politics has changed in the last five years.”
THE WHITE HOUSE
MAKING HIS MARK — After four years of a Trump-McConnell alliance that saw a remaking of the federal court system, Biden is rushing to put his own stamp on things. “President Biden has muscled through the highest number of federal judges in the first year of a presidency in four decades, rapidly filling vacancies at a clip that outpaces his predecessor with judicial picks from a diverse range of racial, gender and professional backgrounds,” WaPo’s Seung Min Kim and Ann Marimow report. “The pace reflects an urgency from the Biden White House and Democratic senators to make up ground lost to Republicans who prioritized filling the judiciary with conservatives, putting in place more than 230 judges during the Trump presidency.”
THE PANDEMIC
OMI-CHRONICLES …
— The unfortunate Omicron reality is setting in for public health officials and the public alike: “Top government health officials on Sunday warned that the United States will probably see record numbers of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations as the omicron variant spreads rapidly and forces Americans to again grapple with the dangers of a pandemic that has upended life around the globe,” WaPo’s Amy Wang, Dan Diamond and Hannah Dreier write.
— Moderna today said its booster shot raised the level of antibodies 37-fold, per the NYT.
— The CDC is still struggling with accurate data tracking, impeding the country’s ability to prepare for and understand the spread of Omicron, reports Erin Banco. That’s in part due to the balkanized and decentralized nature of the country’s health systems, but experts and local health officials tell Erin the federal government hasn’t made sufficient data investments to be able to handle the next surge. Instead, the U.S. continues to rely largely on data gathered by other countries to understand what’s happening at home.
— New York City Mayor BILL DE BLASIO is urging the Biden administration to step in and help his city — and soon, Deanna Garcia writes. “De Blasio said the White House should invoke the Defense Production Act to help provide a larger number of at-home tests as well as monoclonal antibody treatments. He also said the Biden administration should fast-track approval of an antiviral pill from Pfizer.”
PLAYBOOKERS
Brandon Brown, of “Let’s go Brandon/F--- Joe Biden” fame, spoke to NYT’s Ben Smith.
Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker said they had tested positive for the coronavirus. Both said they were fully vaccinated — including a booster shot — and were experiencing mild symptoms. Ditto for Jason Crow.
Chris Pappas got engaged.
Lori McClintock, the wife of Tom McClintock, died.
Weijia Jiang and Meridith McGraw, both West Virginia natives, have had it with hot takes on their home state.
Manu Raju gave the keynote address at his alma mater, University of Wisconsin’s winter commencement.
CAPSULE CAPER — Remember that time capsule that was rumored to be buried beneath the statue of Robert E. Lee in Richmond, Va.? Well, after striking out on finding it months ago, historians are pretty sure they discovered its location Friday. “What they are less certain about is how to recover the artifact from the 1,500-pound block of granite it is nestled in,” NYT’s Amanda Holpuch reports.
TRANSITION — TJ Story is joining Holland & Knight as a senior public affairs adviser. He previously was a legislative assistant for Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).
ENGAGED — Layla Zaidane, president and CEO of the Millennial Action Project, and Max Sinsheimer, founder of Sinsheimer Literary Agency, got engaged Saturday. Max proposed in their Columbia Heights home, followed by a surprise celebration with friends at St. Vincent’s. Instapics
— Jason Johnson, comms director for Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), and Sofia Cortes, a senior program coordinator at Banyan Global, got engaged Saturday at El Primitivo in Valle de Guadalupe in Baja California. Pics
WEEKEND WEDDING — Tom Wilbur, director of public affairs at PhRMA, and Leslie Lake, a VP at FleishmanHillard, got married Saturday at the Mills House Hotel in Charleston, S.C. The two were introduced in 2019 during a meeting at PhRMA HQ in D.C. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: PBS’ Paula Kerger … Sonny Perdue … John Frick … HuffPost’s Jen Bendery … Murray Waas ... Susan Neely of the American Council of Life Insurers … POLITICO’s John Yearwood and Francis Chung … AP’s Mary Clare Jalonick ... Mandi Rogers Thorpe … Abigail Schwartz … Lauren Milnes of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries’ (D-N.Y.) office … Hannah Thoburn of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee … Amelia Burns … Anderson Heiman of Monument Advocacy … Hilary Nachem Loewenstein of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Michelle Brooks … Alison Williams of Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s office … Brooke Goldstein of the Lawfare Project … Donald Lathbury … Marisa Mills … former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) … former Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.) … Louise Linton … The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg
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