NYPD officers cleared trains on Tuesday in Brooklyn, a new assignment as the subways have closed overnight for disinfection during the coronavirus pandemic.
Photo: Frank Franklin II/Associated PressThe New York Police Department is preparing for a jump in crime when New York City reopens businesses and eases restrictions on social gatherings after earlier measures led to a steep drop in arrests.
The department’s commissioner, Dermot Shea, said in an interview that crime could rise in part because of the mass release of inmates from city jails to stem the spread of the disease among incarcerated populations and jail staffers. More than 1,600 people were released from city jails during the coronavirus pandemic, according to city Board of Correction records.
At the same time, the virus has taken a toll on the NYPD, with one in five officers out sick at the peak of the outbreak in the city. As of Thursday, 1,624 uniformed members of the NYPD were out sick, accounting for about 4.5% of the department’s uniformed workforce, police officials said. Before the pandemic, the department averaged around 3% out sick.
Mr. Shea said the loss of manpower could also affect operations in a reopening of the city, particularly at a time when the NYPD is contending with a number of factors, including a bail law enacted in January that allows many defendants to remain free as they await trials.
The changes were opposed by Mr. Shea, who has blamed them for a rise in crime before the virus struck. “I worry about that storm on the horizon,” Mr. Shea said.
In the weeks after Mayor Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency and enacted rules to stop the spread of the disease in mid-March, major crimes in the city fell by more than a quarter, and arrests plummeted by more than half. However, auto thefts, commercial burglaries, shootings and murders increased.
At the same time, the department’s officers took on more responsibility, enforcing the city’s rules on social distancing and to ramp up patrolling the subway system as it closed overnight for disinfection.
Officers who previously patrolled public schools were reassigned to work in city parks, and detectives who normally worked in narcotics were redeployed to fight a jump in commercial burglaries. “It radically changed how we police, literally overnight,” Mr. Shea said of the virus.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Monday began to outline conditions under which areas including New York City might begin to reopen aspects of society in phases. The spread of the virus in the city has slowed but Mr. de Blasio has said a return to normal isn’t happening soon in the worst-hit area of the nation.
NYPD Chief of Crime Control Strategies Michael LiPetri said he is wary of an uptick in certain crimes, including violent acts, as residents return to public spaces. Thefts of personal belongings may increase as well, Mr. LiPetri said.
NYPD officers have faced an increase in auto thefts in the locked-down city.
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty ImagesMr. LiPetri said he has met with members of his staff to plan for a possible rise in crimes as the city relaxes restrictions. “We are prepared to move resources,” he said.
The pandemic poses different challenges to the police compared with other major events like natural disasters, said Daniel Nagin, a professor specializing in criminology and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
Those tend to be events concentrated within a short time span, followed by a brief burst of opportunistic crimes like looting, Mr. Nagin said.
“Whereas this is much more persistent, and when it’s more persistent, other factors may come into play affecting crime besides opportunity,” Mr. Nagin said, “like people becoming desperate for money.”
That can mean increases in crimes such as burglaries of commercial establishments, as well as auto thefts, he said.
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams said the city will be tested as emergency measures gradually lift. New Yorkers will be free to go out, but will then encounter the continued closure of many public spaces such as community centers and swimming pools, he said.
“What I don’t want are those melees on a hot summer night, where people are angry because the beaches are closed, the pools are closed, they can’t go anywhere,” he said.
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Mr. Adams, a former NYPD captain, predicted an increase in crimes such as domestic violence because there will be few public places of leisure open.
During normal times, crime tends to drop in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters like hurricanes, but bounces back to normal rates within a few days, said Christopher Herrmann, a professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York.
But Mr. Herrmann said he doubts that New York City will experience a similar burst of crime immediately after the emergency measures end. Even as businesses and public spaces reopen, many people will remain fearful of crowded places such as bars and restaurants, he said.
“Just because you open up a movie theater doesn’t mean everybody is going to flock to the movie theater,” he said. “I think the majority of people are still going to be very hesitant to go out and go back to routine activities.”
Write to Ben Chapman at Ben.Chapman@wsj.com and Shan Li at shan.li@wsj.com
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