A view of people lining up for Covid-19 testing in New York City on May 27.
Photo: John Nacion/Zuma PressOne policy response to the coronavirus pandemic has been the early release of thousands of criminals from custody across the U.S. The goal is to reduce infections in the confined quarters of jail or prison, and in some cases it’s warranted on compassionate grounds. But a new study in Health Affairs seeks to answer a related question that has drawn too little attention: Are criminals who are released from custody spreading the virus in the communities they return to?
The background for the study is that Cook County Chief Judge Timothy Evans in 2017 ordered judges to set low or no bail for low-income defendants to reduce pretrial incarceration. This has increased the phenomenon of “jail cycling” in which criminals rapidly revolve through jails. A University of Utah law school study in February found the number of released defendants charged with committing new crimes increased by 45% for all crimes and 33% for violent crimes after the new Cook County bail policy was implemented.
According to the Health Affairs study, Cook County Jail in Chicago booked 1,855 individuals in March and released 2,129, 92% of whom had been taken into custody after Feb. 1. The researchers analyzed the correlation between coronavirus cases and other variables including inmate releases by zip code in Chicago, adjusting for confounding factors.
They found that race, population density, public transit and poverty were not significantly correlated with a zip code’s coronavirus case rate. But jail inmate releases were. According to their estimate, 15.7% of all documented coronavirus cases in Illinois and 15.9% in Chicago as of April 19 were tied to the release of inmates.
“Although we cannot infer causality, it is possible that, as arrested individuals are exposed to high-risk spaces for infection in jails and then later released to their communities, the criminal justice system is turning them into potential disease vectors for their families, neighbors, and, ultimately, the general public,” say the two authors, a Toulouse School of Economics professor and Harvard doctoral candidate. They add that this may be an argument to reduce policing in minority communities.
But it may be that Cook County’s bail policy is releasing too many criminals who pose public safety and health threats into vulnerable communities. Experience suggests that people who have already committed crimes aren’t likely to shelter at home, obey social distancing rules, or wear face masks in public (as Illinois requires).
New York City Police Commissioner Dermot Shea last month said police issued 60 summonses after a birthday party in a Brooklyn barbershop and arrested two on gun charges. Many of those who have been cited for social-distancing violations, he noted, had prior arrests. New York has a bail policy similar to Cook County’s.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo seemed mystified last month that most new hospitalized patients in a New York survey were not employed, and only 4% were taking public transport. How then were they getting infected? Curiously, antibody rates also exceeded 40% in some Brooklyn and Bronx neighborhoods with high crime rates. That’s more than twice as high as in Manhattan.
The question of whether progressive criminal justice policies have fueled the virus spread deserves more investigation—especially as the country tries to prevent a second infection surge in the autumn.
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