State health officials last week said they’d use county-level COVID-19 data as the starting point to help school districts decide whether to bring kids back into their buildings this fall. Newly updated data, though, is already altering the landscape.
Fresh numbers released Thursday by the Minnesota Department of Health have changed the guidance for school reopening in 27 counties — if the school year started today.
Rising COVID-19 caseloads mean schools in seven counties are recommended to use more distance learning than the original recommendations issued last week.
For example, Sherburne County last week reported 15.8 cases per 10,000 residents over a 14-day period, which meant the state recommended its schools have in-person education for grade schoolers and a mix of in-person and distance learning for secondary students.
An extra week of rising cases, however, brought Sherburne up to 23.3 cases per 10,000 residents over 14 days — which brings a recommendation of hybrid learning for all students.
The other six counties to see their reopening recommendations downgraded were Faribault, Martin, Norman, Red Lake and Rock counties.
In 20 counties, falling case counts mean a change in recommendation for the better in terms of bringing kids back to buildings.
Carver County, for example, fell from 20.8 cases per 10,000 residents over 14 days last week to 17.9 this week, moving it from hybrid learning for all students to in-person learning for elementary school.
These metrics, based on COVID-19 cases, form the starting point as districts and the Health Department negotiate specific learning models for each district.
The case figures fueling these recommendations are somewhat out of date, because of how the agency is calculating its numbers.
The recommendations releases Thursday are based on case data from between July 12 and July 25, while next week will see updated data based on cases from July 19 to Aug. 1.
New cases jump; hospitalizations rise
The updated county data came Thursday as the Health Department reported 867 new COVID-19 cases in Minnesota — one of the highest daily counts in the pandemic.
The number of people currently hospitalized (319) and the subset needing intensive care (153) also rose. Friday marked the seventh straight day the department reported more than 300 people still hospitalized, the first time that’s happened since late June.
Here are the latest coronavirus statistics in Minnesota:
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58,640 cases confirmed (867 new) via 1,105,094 tests
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1,636 deaths (seven new)
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5,421 cases requiring hospitalization
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319 people remain hospitalized; 153 in intensive care
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51,604 patients no longer needing isolation
Cases bubble across age brackets, up north
Worries remain about the growth of COVID-19 among younger Minnesotans, including that those infected will inadvertently spread the virus to grandparents and other more vulnerable people.
Minnesotans in their 20s now make up the age group with the most confirmed cases in the pandemic — nearly 14,000. The median age of Minnesotans infected has been trending down in recent weeks and is now 36 years old.
In the last few days, however, the number of people newly diagnosed with COVID-19 and younger than 20 was nearly equal to the number of newly confirmed cases among 20-somethings.
“Consider all the roles you play” in all daily interactions, Kris Ehresmann, the state’s infectious disease director, cautioned last week. People who might not worry about themselves should worry about infecting vulnerable family members and coworkers, she added.
Regionally, the Twin Cities and its suburbs have been driving the counts of newly reported cases.
The seven-county Twin Cities metro area represents more than two-thirds of new COVID-19 cases in Minnesota and has accounted for a disproportionate share of the state’s cases since mid-May when southern Minnesota’s meatpacking hot spots were surging.
But the disease is present in all parts of the state, including the north, which had largely avoided the outbreak until recently.
Cases in Beltrami County, home to Bemidji, have more than doubled in the past two weeks, increasing to 215 as of Thursday.
The state’s fastest-growing outbreaks relative to population continue to be in northern Minnesota.
Meatpacking operations had been hot spots for big outbreaks in southwest, west-central and central Minnesota earlier in the pandemic, but new cases have slowed considerably in recent weeks.
The case increases the past few week in Minnesota have caught the attention of the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who in a Monday interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association named Minnesota among a handful of states that should reconsider reimposing some restrictions given the trends.
Get a flu shot
The newest numbers come a day after Minnesota’s health commissioner called on Minnesotans to get vaccinated for the fall flu season and warned the Sturgis, S.D., motorcycle rally that starts Friday will be a “ripe environment” for COVID-19 spread.
Commissioner Jan Malcolm on Wednesday called on people to make sure they and any children in their care get flu shots. She noted that vaccinations among kids had dropped during the COVID-19 outbreak, although the situation has improved recently.
“It’s going to be so critical for Minnesotans to get their flu shots this fall” so that the health care system isn’t overwhelmed by flu and “what we expect to be additional cases of COVID-19 this fall,” she added.
Officials have been increasingly concerned about a one-two punch of COVID-19 and the flu this fall. Moves starting in late March to shut down businesses, restaurants and retail establishments to fight COVID-19 spread also short-circuited the spring flu season.
While current hospitalizations remain far lower than their late-May peak, they’ve shown an upward swing the past few weeks even as the daily growth in new cases flattened.
Sturgis a ‘pretty ripe environment’ for spread
Malcolm and other state public health leaders have warned that the upcoming Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota could be a potential petri dish for spreading the virus here and across the nation.
The nine-day event is expected to attract more than 250,000 riders and their friends from around the country to the Black Hills, leading Minnesota health leaders to worry about the disease making its way back here.
Malcolm on Wednesday reiterated those concerns, saying she was disappointed South Dakota had OK’d the Sturgis rally this year given that the state is seeing a significant surge in cases and the rally would be attracting people from around the country, including places where COVID-19 cases are climbing.
The Sturgis rally, she said, will be a “pretty ripe environment for further spread.”
The length of the rally from Friday through Aug. 16, will mean prolonged exposure for many, and the long-distance travel by many riders means they may carry the virus home and touch off other outbreaks, Michael Osterholm, head of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told MPR News Monday.
“Come mid-August to late August, early September,” Osterholm said, “Sturgis will have one hell of an imprint on this country.”
Malcolm on Wednesday said those headed for Sturgis should watch for symptoms and perhaps even get tested for COVID-19 a week after coming home, even if they aren’t symptomatic.
Self-quarantining for 14 days, she added, would also be a “really prudent and really thoughtful thing to do.”
Developments from around the state
Gas tax revenue skids as driving drops
COVID-19’s impact on a key source of Minnesota road construction funding is becoming more apparent. Gas tax revenues for the past five months were $50 million, or 14 percent, below a February estimate of what would come in over that time.
That matters because the tax revenues are dedicated to highway-related expenses, including paying off debt for construction. May saw the steepest drop-off, with revenue compared to projections falling off by about $21 million, or almost 30 percent.
If there’s a bright spot, it’s that June and July gas tax revenues weren’t down as severely as the preceding months.
Last month, the state came within $5 million of hitting the estimates from prior to the COVID-19 societal shakeup. Traffic volumes plummeted during the early days of the coronavirus response and the stay-at-home orders.
The Minnesota Department of Transportation estimates that traffic has nearly rebounded to historical averages in recent weeks. Traffic volume in some parts of the state is now above the three-year baseline.
— Brian Bakst | MPR News
Top headlines
Many Minnesota teachers wary of returning to the classroom: As more school districts in Minnesota decide how to go back to school this fall, many teachers feel uneasy about returning to the classroom in the middle of a pandemic.
Exempt from COVID-19 guidance, some Minnesota private schools are seeing a surge in applicants: Many independent and faith-based schools are offering face-to-face instruction this fall when their public school neighbors cannot.
St. Paul to start school year with distance learning; St. Cloud eyes hybrid plan: The St. Paul district says it will revisit the decision in late September. St. Cloud’s school board is expected to vote on the superintendent’s recommendation on Aug. 19.
After taking tough measures, Fond du Lac band has first COVID-19 cases: After months of trying to keep the coronavirus at bay, the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa has confirmed the first two positive COVID-19 cases on its reservation in northeastern Minnesota.
COVID-19 in Minnesota
Data in these graphs are based off Minnesota Department of Health cumulative totals released at 11 a.m. daily. You can find more detailed statistics on COVID-19 at the Health Department website.
The coronavirus is transmitted through respiratory droplets, coughs and sneezes, similar to the way the flu can spread.
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