As Michigan nears 100,000 confirmed cases, some counties are facing sharper rises and outbreaks than others. And, when adjusting confirmed cases to their population, most Michigan counties have high case numbers.
Isabella County, home to Mount Pleasant and Central Michigan University, has had the largest increase in the state, rising at a rate of 16 cases in the past two weeks. A few counties near southeast Michigan, as well as Kent County, have also seen an increase in their daily confirmed cases.
The map below shows the difference between two confirmed daily averages, Aug. 13 and Aug. 26. It calculates the 7-day average for each day, which helps put a daily case number into the context of a trend.
About one out of three Michigan counties have seen an increase of confirmed cases while the rest are decreasing or seeing roughly the same numbers.
Where are the increases?
After Isabella, these are the three counties seeing the highest numbers:
- Kent County's average rose by 8 cases. It now has 46 daily cases.
- Monroe County's average is up 6. It has 17 cases daily.
- Livingston County's average rose by 5. It has 13 cases daily.
Monroe County had peak of 28 cases on Aug. 25, and currently has 1,097 confirmed cases with a population of 150,500 residents. Livingston County currently has 881 confirmed cases.
Isabella County has seen the largest jump in cases in Michigan, rising at a rate of 16 cases in the past two weeks. The increase in cases prompted the county to declare a health emergency, attributing the COVID-19 cases to Central Michigan University's reopening and student parties. CMU also plans to run face-to-face classes.
"As predicted, the number of COVID-19 cases in the CMU community has increased as students returned for the fall semester," spokeswoman Heather Smith told the Free Press earlier this week. "Of the 54 new student cases over the past week, particularly concerning are pockets of positive cases and symptomatic individuals living in three houses off-campus."
According to the county, there was a 350% increase when compared to the week before students were moving in, with cases skewing towards younger ages.
The highest growth in West Michigan is Kent County, which includes Grand Rapids, with a Wednesday average of 46, growing steadily since Aug. 22.
In the Upper Peninsula, Menominee County has stopped seeing a steady rise while its neighboring counties also seem to have stabilized. Grand Traverse County, home to Traverse City, has seen a 4 case increase in its average.
Where are the decreases?
Counties that were seeing trouble last week, such as Oakland and Macomb, have dropped this week.
Oakland County had a spike on Aug. 13, with 201 cases for that day. Health officials have attributed some of these high numbers of to prom- and graduation-like parties among teenagers in the area. Oakland's average decreased by 13 cases, however, seems to be rising slightly since Aug 22.
Macomb County, which had been flagged as a hotspot by the COVID Risk Levels Dashboard by the Harvard Global Health Institute earlier this month, now has a 25 case decrease over the last two weeks. In the past two weeks, the county went from a daily case average of 127 on Aug. 13 to 103 on Aug. 26.
Wayne County's average, after a recent peak of 299 cases on Aug. 13, decreased by 6. However, in the past four days, the average has slowly been crawling upwards.
Wayne County includes totals reported by the health departments of Wayne County and the City of Detroit. Many of Wayne County's cases last week may include a backlog, updated case numbers, as well as "a larger concentration of community spread," according to Michael McElrath, a spokesman for the Wayne County Public Health Division, last week.
Detroit's average increased slightly over the past two weeks.
Most Michigan counties have 'high' rates of coronavirus cases
The map below shows Wednesday's 7-day confirmed case average per 100,000 residents by county. When adjusting for population, a majority of Michigan counties are either in the "medium high" or "high" categories, according to definitions from the state's MI Safe Start map., These categories are used to help decide each region's reopening phase.
This graphic helps show which counties are seeing a disproportionately high case count in relation to their population. For example, Wayne County, which has over 1 million residents, has a rate of 7.4 daily average cases. Grand Traverse County only has 93,088 residents but has a slightly higher rate than Wayne at 7.7 daily average cases.
Isabella County has the highest rate on the map with a weekly average of 27 cases per 100,000 residents. The next three are:
- Menominee County, which has 17 cases per 100,000 residents
- Saginaw County, with 14 cases per 100,000 residents
- Macomb County, at 12 cases per 100,000 residents
Six counties have a weekly case average of zero: Keweenaw, Baraga, Luce, Presque Isle, Oscoda, and Lake.
Nisa Khan is a data intern for the Detroit Free Press. Contact her at nkhan@freep.com and follow her on Twitter @mnisakhan. Free Press staff writers Kristi Tanner, David Jesse, and Kristen Jordan Shamus contributed to this report.
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Where coronavirus cases are increasing — and decreasing — in Michigan - Detroit Free Press
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