History will record the current moment in one of two ways: either as the time city leaders mustered the courage and competence to stop a descent into uncontrolled lawlessness; or as the time they fumbled their last chance to save Chicago.
For the second time in less than three months, looters ran amok through Chicago's downtown and surrounding areas after midnight on Monday, smashing and stealing for hours before a beleaguered police contingent managed to restore order.
For the second time in less than three months, business owners are boarding up windows, adding up losses and wondering why the city isn't doing more to protect them.
For the second time in less than three months residents of Streeterville, River North and other neighborhoods once considered reasonably safe but recently stalked by growing crime fears are wondering if it's time to sell while their homes still have some value.
A third time would be one too many. Residents and businesses likely will give the city one more chance to quell disorder and secure the streets. But they'll be gone if anything like Monday's mayhem happens again.
Anyone who remembers or has studied the postwar era knows the corrosive effect of fear on cities like Chicago. It's deadlier to urban health than any pandemic, or even the dire fiscal woes facing Chicago. And it can cripple a city's ability to meet those challenges.
Here's a bit of good news. Local leaders can prevent this outcome if they're willing to do what's necessary to snuff out fear. That means fast, forceful, effective action to stop looters from ransacking Chicago again.
Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Police Superintendent David Brown need a comprehensive plan to detect the earliest stirrings of unrest and deploy overwhelming force—thousands of officers, not the 400 hundred pressed into service Monday—to smother the next conflagration before it starts.
State's Attorney Kim Foxx and Cook County judges need to make clear, through their handling of cases from both recent outbreaks, that all lawbreakers will face maximum charges and penalties.
I'm not going to wade into the finger-pointing between Lightfoot, Brown and Foxx, except to note that all three bear some responsibility for the disorder on Chicago streets. A key catalyst for the wanton, widespread destruction wrought by Monday's mobs was a flourishing sense of impunity among local criminals, which wouldn't have taken root if those leaders had been doing their jobs effectively.
I will describe what's likely to happen if they don't meet this pivotal moment. Pervasive fear of crime is a sure-fire prescription for economic collapse. Don't believe me? Look at cities like Detroit, or Chicago neighborhoods where once-thriving commercial corridors still bear the craters of 1960s riots.
It starts in real estate. A one-two punch of fear scares off buyers just as nervous residents put condos and houses up for sale. Economics 101 takes over, as excess supply and dwindling demand drive down values. And as values decline, builders who have been investing in city neighborhoods take their money elsewhere.
Neighborhoods in and around downtown, which rode an urban renaissance over the past three decades, are teetering on a knife's edge. Demand for homes in those areas depends on the attractions of city living: access to cultural amenities, the lakefront, restaurants, retailers, and vibrant urban street life. But those attractions become as remote as Nome to residents afraid to leave home at night.
When people with disposable income leave, retailers catering to middle- and upper-class consumers follow. With them go jobs. Sadly, the jobs at risk are among the few available and accessible to people without college degrees who live in struggling South and West side neighborhoods.
Conventions and tourism, a major economic engine for Chicago, can't survive a climate of fear. COVID-19 has caused many groups to cancel gatherings this year. Perceptions of safety in Chicago will influence their decisions about whether to come back here when the virus abates. One of the attractions of Chicago as a convention site is the opportunity it offers out-of-towners to sample the delights of a world-class city in safety. But if crime fears keep conventioneers cooped up in conference halls and hotel rooms, they might as well meet in Orlando or Las Vegas.
A decline in conventions would deal a heavy blow to local hotels, restaurants and other businesses that cater to conventioneers. Again, these industries offer employment to Chicagoans with limited options.
Before long, Chicago's appeal as a headquarters location will fade as crime fears fray the fabric of downtown life. A reversal of the back-to-the-city trend that has brought many large companies to Chicago would put the metropolitan area at a disadvantage in the competition for corporate investment, reducing opportunity for people across our region.
City tax revenues would shrink along with economic activity and property values. The neighborhoods hit by Monday's looting represent an outsized share of Chicago's already-stressed tax base. With less money from Michigan Avenue sales taxes and Gold Coast property taxes, Chicago would struggle to fund basic city services, let alone additional programs to address social inequities.
Call me alarmist, but there's plenty of historical precedent for this scenario. History also tells us who suffers most when fear of uncontrolled crime hollows out city neighborhoods: those without the resources to flee for safety beyond the city limits.
Of course, aggressive law enforcement is only part of the solution to Chicago's crime problem. The city needs programs to address root causes of crime over the long term. But Chicago's long-term prospects look grim without effective short-term measures to restore the rule of law on city streets.
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August 12, 2020 at 04:15AM
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looting will devastate the city economy if fear of crime is unchecked: Cahill - Crain's Chicago Business
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