CLEVELAND. Ohio - Ohio’s rate of new coronavirus cases is dropping so sharply that if the trend continues the state could be just a month away from reaching the goal Gov. Mike DeWine set in early March as sufficient to lift all his health orders.
The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday afternoon will report a rate of close to 122.9 cases per 100,000 over the last two weeks, cleveland.com projects.
This would be down from 200 cases per 100,000 as reported by the state in mid-April and moving swiftly toward DeWine’s previously established goal of 50 per 100,000.
The goal carries less significance now. DeWine on Wednesday announced that on June 2 he would lift his orders ranging from mask wearing in public to capacity limits in restaurants and entertainment venues.
This decision came short of the goal but amid continued improvements. In weekly updates over the last three weeks, the two-week rate had fallen to 185.8, 155.6 and 140.2.
Ohio was last below 50 nearly 11 months ago, in June of last year. The rate shot up to a high of 845.5 in mid-December, just as the vaccination effort was getting started.
In addition to falling case numbers, hospitalization counts have also been dropping.
The 974 and 964 coronavirus patients in hospital beds across the state Tuesday and Wednesday marked the first days since March this number had dropped below 1,000. And it is well below the record of 5,308 COVID-19 patients set on Dec. 15.
About 28% of both Ohio’s hospital beds overall and the ICU beds are reported vacant.
Though DeWine on March 4 said he would tie lifting restrictions to the two-week case rate dropping to 50, he later altered course, saying on April 21 he would consider other benchmarks.
The case rate is based on when people became sick or were first identified with the virus, not when the cases were reported by the state. And it excludes incarcerated individuals.
The official number released by the state Thursday afternoon may differ some from the cleveland.com estimate, mainly because it’s unknown how many of the recently reported cases involve incarcerated people. But each week the cleveland.com projection has been within decimal points of the official number, and sometimes exactly the same.
Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. Find data-related stories at cleveland.com/datacentral. Find previous census 2020 at this link.
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